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Currencies Outlook: November 17, 2014



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Previous week, EUR/USD currency pair mounted to 1.3646, year 2013 closing high, and then settles for the week under the 1.3600 area. On Monday, the currency pair still traded with marginal signals from past weeks closing of 1.3750.
Currently, levels 1.3470 to 1.3450 on the downside, low of previous week also depicted 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of May 2011 to July 2012 low, seems to make provision for current support for the currency pair and may prove to be a drive engine for the up-coming week. Should the pair falls under its current support, it tends to surrender some of its recent gains and faced with a corrective pull-back towards 1.3330 to 1.3310 area representing the lower trend-line of the ascending channel formation on daily chart.
On the upside, the area 1.3650-1.3680 coincides with the closing high experienced in 2013, poising to offer some resistance for the currency pair. A strong move over 1.3650-1.3680 resistance zone would propose more upward movement for the currency pair towards 1.3800 resistance zone, signaled by the 61.8% retracement level. The 1.3710 year 2013 high, coincides with the upper trend line of the increasing channel might seem to be an immediate resistance for the currency pair.

As shown in the chart, previous week GBP/USD currency pair retraced from a 9-month high of 1.6260 signaled by 1.6250-1.6270 resistance zone, comprising of 2013 closing high also similar with the upper trend line ascending channel formation on weekly chart and is now likely to act as vital resistance for the currency pair.
If the currency pair clears the potent resistance near 1.6250-1.6270 area, it may possibly persist to appreciate towards 1.6380-1.6400 resistance zone, similar to the intraday high reached in 2013 also coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of the currency pairs 2007-2009 big decrease. Intermediate resistance on the upside is considered near 1.6130-1.6140 zone.
In other way, a decisive break under 1.5950 depicting the lower trend line of an ascending channel formation on daily chart, would propose break down from ascending channel and the currency pair could immediately challenge sub 1.5900 level. The pair may seem vulnerable to more downside towards its next important support near 1.5720-1.5700 area representing 38.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of 1.4812-1.6260 current up-move.
Checking the current move of the pair, buyers are likely to await for a break on either side before choosing on the near term direction of the currency pair.Till then the pair tends tp trade in a 300 pip range between 1.5950 and 1.6250 on the downside and upside respectively.

Previous week USD/JPY currency pair recorded below its 200 day SMA, the first ever in the year 2013. The pair never registered any significant recovery since then. On Monday, the pair weakened under 97.20-97.00 multiple support zone, comprising of 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of February 2013 upside and an ascending trend line extending from February 2013 low through Jun and Aug 2013 lows.
If it fails to maintain 97.20-97.00 multiple support zone proposing underlying weakness for the currency pair and the pair now seems vulnerable to challenge August 2013 lows, 96.00-95.80 support zone also showing 61.8% retracement level. Again, a decisive weakness under August 2013 lows, would possibly consist to the near term downward pressure for the currency pair towards 94.00 levels.
On the upwards, 97.00-97.20 zone, previous vital support zone, poised to offer immediate resistance for the currency pair. Any movement upwards beyond the current resistance zone now seems to be capped at 98.00-98.50 zone consisting of 200-day SMA and 100-day SMA respectively.

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